Well, the 2023 deer season has come and gone. Sadly, I only got the one doe. After having taken out the Marlin 1894 CST in .357 Magnum out for a deer season I would like think I have a little data more on which cartridge makes for a better hunting cartridge but one deer is hardly a good sample size.
To be fair, it seems pretty obvious that .30-30 is better than .357 Magnum from a rifle on paper. Is it really though? I thought it would be until I started thinking about it and running both on paper. We'll compare a 20 inch barrel .30-30 to a 16 inch barrel .357 Magnum below. The two factory loads I will compare are my two top choices for the calibers in question. For the .357 Magnum, the Remington 158 gr SJHP. For the .30-30, I like the Federal Fusion 170 grain load but I started hunting with the Remington Core-lokt 170 gr loads in my Winchester 94. They worked just fine.
Major Factors
Distances
Currently, I can't confirm the absolute distances that the two factory cartridges can achieve and still expand reliably. We can, however, take an educated guess for the Remington .357 Magnum SJHP load. If we accept that during ballistic gel testing for 2 inch barrel revolvers, the achieved velocity is 1115 fps. That would put the maximum distance my 16 inch barrel rifle can support right around 182 yards as the muzzle velocity is at 1800 fps per my chronograph. It might go further but I can't prove that. While that's impressive, the bullet drop is 18 inches at 200 yards when zeroed for 100 yards. A 150 yard zero for my .30-30 with the Federal Fusion bullets moving around 2100 fps from the muzzle, should put me down around 4.7 inches of drop at 200 yards. While the holdover is better, what I can't confirm is if that bonded soft-point bullet still expand at 200 yards for the .30-30. Federal's 170 gr bonded soft-point is moving around 1635 fps in that situation. It might not expand. Bullet construction is going to play a big part here.
Another comparison would be to maximize the Maximum Point Blank Range for the two loads I use. Let's look at keeping the bullet in a 6 inch vital zone. For the Remington .357 Magnum load, I would need a zero of around 137 yards. The high point is at 79 yards of 3.02 inches above zero and 3.01 inches down at 158 yards. To hit 200 yards, I would need to hold over the target 18 inches. Our MPBR is 158 yards for the .357 Magnum. While 158 yards isn't anything to scoff at, it's just not as good as the .30-30 right? Well, based on the calculator I use, the .30-30 would be a little better. With a 174 yard zero, the Federal Fusion bullet is 3.04 inches high at 99 yards and 3.04 inches down at 204 yards. That puts the .30-30 about 46 yards further than the .357 Magnum for the same 6 inch vital zone. However, I believe it won't matter if the .30-30 won't expand at those distances. The Remington .357 Magnum load should still expand based on above.
What isn't helping here is the ballistic coefficient for .357 Magnum is pretty poor, typically being around 0.14 to 0.15 while the .30-30 is usually around 0.2 or better. I confirmed with Remington that the SJHP's BC is 0.145. The Federal Fusion 170 gr 30 cal bullet is posted as being 0.313. That is a serious improvement. That said, I have seen some .357 Magnum bullets with a 0.20 BC. If you are wondering, the Hornady LEVERevolution load is only 0.169. Nice but not great.
Construction
It should be said, if a .30-30 bullet's expansion velocity threshold is around 200 yards then the comparison between .30-30 and these Remington JSHP is close. I'm not sure that I can overstate how dependent on the construction of these bullets will impact this. While my favorite Remington load may be exceptional compared to basic .357 Magnum soft-points, I'll point out that run of the mill .357 Magnum bullets will likely shorten the distance. A jacketed soft-point like the Federal American Eagle load probably won't have the same distance/velocity threshold as the Remington load. We are comparing a hollow-point to a soft-point in our given loads. From the way I see it, .30-30 wins in a factory soft-point to soft-point comparison. If we focus on the two chosen loads, it could go either way. Because I don't have good data on if the Fusion bonded soft-point will expand at 150 yards or 200 yards or further or less, this could be a toss up. It's possible that the Fusion bullet won't expand beyond shorter distances such as 130 yards. If that were the case, the .357 Magnum would win.
I did reach out to Federal Premium to see if they could provide an answer on their 170 gr .30-30 load's window. The technical services team provided 1,950 fps as the minimum velocity for reliable expansion. I have concerns with that as that would put the maximum distance around 60 yards per my calculator. I don't believe that is accurate. We're seeing where plenty of basic .30-30 loads expand just fine at 100 yards without issue based on testing from certain folks. Then again, the Fusion load has a very narrow frontal area compared to other, older bullet designs. After continued conversation with Federal, they followed up with that they engineered their bullets for the 100 yard range and should still expand beyond that. That's a lot more realistic. The Fusion 170 gr bullet is moving around 1860 fps at 100 yards per my calculations. I did continue a conversation with Federal's representative who followed up saying that with .30-30, they assume and therefore engineer their loads for "100 yards and in". They went on to say "that's not to say they won't work outside that range but the design intent is 100 yards." I got that quote from the engineer at Federal.
I remember seeing a video a few years ago where someone tested the Fusion 170gr rounds at 75 yards and had fantastic expansion. It was the reason I chose the Fusion load specifically. I've seen testing of Federal, Winchester, Remington and Hornady loads shot into gel at 100 yards with good results so I don't think the initial numbers I got from Federal match what I'm looking for. Truly, the only way to know for sure is to shoot the Federal bullets into gel blocks at 200 yards and I'm just not setup to do that.
I can try make a call on this by looking at anecdotal data gathered from the internet. There are plenty of people who claim they are getting expansion in deer with 200 yard shots. Usually, I see those same people saying they used Remington Core-lokt bullets. No mention of how big those mushrooms were. I can't find anything similar on the Fusion bonded soft-point bullets.
If we postulate that most traditional .30-30 soft-points can achieve suitable expansion at 200 yards then I would hand .30-30 the win for the following reason. If expansion thresholds are similar between the two chosen cartridges but the MPBR is better on the .30-30, then take the .30-30. At 200 yards, if you can still get expansion from both, but you have to hold over on the .357 Magnum then why use the .357 Magnum? 158 yards vs 204 yards. If you hunt less than 150 yards, then choose your preference.
Accuracy
I would think .30-30 wins this outright. I'll base this on the testing done by Outdoor Life when they tested the new Marlin 336. They claim average accuracy of 1.6 inches at 100 yards. While I've never sat my Marlin 1894 down, I don't think I can do better than 3 inches with my current SIG Romeo5 setup. The same can be said about my old Winchester 94 even we I had the scout scope. I know that's subjective and anecdotal. However, there are people who are claiming they are getting around 1 to 2 inch groups from their Marlin 1894. Paco Kelley said he can improve a lever action's accuracy with some gunsmithing. I recommend looking at what he did. He was a big fan of the .357 mag in a Rossi R92.
The article that 1895Gunner put up on the new 1894 Classic in .357 Magnum, he was able to achieve sub inch groups at 50 yards with his handloads and 1.48 inches with factory Magtech. I don't know if doubling the size with distance to 100 yards is appropriate but that seems to check out with what I found.
With factory ammunition and factory rifles, I think it will be easier to find a .30-30 load that shoots smaller groups. I'll give this category to .30-30 on that front but if you put in the work for either rifle and cartridge load, I think you'll be able to produce groups that impress. In the end, for the given distances under 200 yards, the accuracy of most commercial rifles is practical and should be good enough. Remember that a 3 inch groups at 100 yards or 3 MOA is still inside the 6 inch vital zone when pushed out to 200 yards. Take your pick on either the .357 Magnum or .30-30 for this category if you're handloading.
Reloading
Both cartridges have a very long history of reloading. The .30-30 has been around since 1895 while the .357 Magnum has "only" been around since 1935. Technically, reloading the .357 Magnum starts with it's parent cartridge, the .38 Special which has been around since 1898 and we can go back further if you want. Understanding the Magnum's history and the relationship with the .38 Special gets you to a point where you can try a wide range of loads by combining differing bullets and powders with the two cases. You should be looking at reloading .357 Magnum and .38 Special as a pair. A quick example, loading .38 Special cases with heavier grain bullets to the .357 Magnum over all length and pressure levels, this lets you load heavy-for-caliber bullets like the Keith 170 grain SWC or my favorite 200 hard cast.
Folks such as Skeeter Skelton developed loads capable of taking small game. Elmer Keith developed loads that can take medium game. Both men started with .38 Special and in many situations were pushing into .357 Magnum pressure territory before .357 Magnum was a thing. 38/44 is a prime example of a pre-magnum load. Pairing the two cartridges expands our options so we can build better loads. One of my favorite handloads is a cast 200 grain bullet over a 5.5 grain charge of HS-6 in a .38 Special case. From my rifle, I achieve around 1030 fps. With a silencer on my Marlin 1894, this subsonic, hard hitting cartridge slaps steel targets with satisfying authority and is very quiet. It's a great plinker if a little expensive per round. On the opposite side of the pair's range, the Remington 158 gr SJHP is fully capable of taking deer. Paco Kelley has a full article detailing his loading of Hornady XTP bullets and H110 into a Winchester 92 clone. Between the pairing, you can cover low power squirrel and rabbit capable loads up to deer or even bear. Mix and match bullets, powder and cases as needed.
The old .30-30 is capable of being loaded similarly. In the early days of .30-30, factory loads of lightweight bullets and small powder charges were offered. Known as Short Range, these loads were offered for small game hunting without the need to buy another firearm. One rifle with the two cartridge loads, a person could take their Winchester 94 into the woods looking for whitetail and come back with rabbits having failed to find a deer.
People have continued that tradition. Paco Kelly wrote about improving the .30-30 with newer powders to drive the bullets much faster than what today's factory loads are available. New bullets can also improve the situation. Solid copper hollow points are developing a reputation for being able to expand in a wide velocity range and staying together. That would let one extend the range of their rifle without much effort.
From the cast bullet perspective, .30-30, I think, does have a leg up. The velocities needed for softer alloy bullets is lower and .30-30 can be stepped up for a higher hardness rating. There are articles available detailing cast bullets and the old .30-30.
Both cartridges are capable of being loaded to levels for fun and sustenance gathering without much issue. Cast bullets to modern solid copper hollow points are available for both and work well. To be honest, this category is a draw for me given the over all history of what's available. However, I do think that .30-30 has a wider selection in terms of options as you really have to start pushing .357 Magnum to get great performance. The larger case capacity of the .30-30 gives you those options. For .357 Magnum, unless you can back it up with a great bullet, you have to start pushing the pressures into the older, more traditional pressure levels. Not everyone is comfortable with it.
Penetration
This needs to be brought up. So far, I have not had a .30-30 bullet stay inside a whitetail but all my shots have been under 100 yards. With .357 Magnum loads, the one shot I took during the 2023 deer season passed. Between the two calibers, all were pass throughs.
Angles will play another factor. The .357 Magnum bullet might not push as deep if it impacts bone such as a front leg. If it doesn't push through deep enough, the bleed out may take longer. Shot placement becomes very important. With these Remington HTP's, gel is showing that they are capable of reaching to the 19 inch mark which is impressive. Another .357 Magnum load, the Hornady Custom 158 gr XTP, can push into the 24 inch range. If you were concerned about penetration lacking on .357 Magnum, maybe look at those loads. Please note that the testing done was from a short range with two and four inch barrel revolvers. That for me simulates the velocities at distance when fired from the rifle.
Gel testing at 100 yards with .30-30 is showing a large sample size of factory loads are penetrating pretty deep.
I say that .30-30 wins generically but it's a draw when you have the correct .357 Magnum load.
Other Factors
Ammunition Availability
From what I have been able to find, it's much easier for me to locate factory ammunition for the .30-30 that have acceptable terminal ballistics on the regular. I tend to have to hunt for a suitable factory deer load for the .357 Magnum and none of them are labeled as such. I had to do a lot of research to find the loads I've chosen. While not impossible, it's tricky given the limited information available. Both cartridges can handle cast bullets well enough and there are some good jacketed bullets available so handloading is always an option. One I highly recommend.
I would have no problem with walking into Academy or Bass Pro and finding a suitable .30-30 offering that I could zero with and get performance within typical hunting distances. The .357 Magnum has numerous offerings as well but these are likely to be geared toward revolvers. Finding a suitable factory load that works well in a rifle for deer will limit your results. I spend lots of time researching a given cartridge before I commit anything. I can't guarantee that I would find my favorite Remington HTP or Hornady Custom loads on any shelf. In fact, I typically purchase these cartridges from online stores instead of driving around looking. Doubly, I've never seen either of my chosen .357 Magnum on any shelf at an LGS.
I'm going to give this one to ye olde .30-30 and I want to add something else. I think this category is very important. I'd like to provide this thought experiment.
If you went into a Cabela's or Bass Pro or an Academy and were going to buy a lever action rifle to hunt with. Basically, buy the gun and ammo then go straight out into the field, which do you take? If there is a new Marlin 1894 Classic in .357 Magnum and a new Marlin 336 Classic in .30-30 both on the shelf, you should choose the .30-30 for the following reason. If you go look at the ammunition on the shelf, most of the generic .30-30 factory loads are proven and verifiable loads capable of taking deer at typical distances. It's highly unlikely that the .357 Magnum they have on the shelf will be as capable as a deer load as those .30-30. I checked the Cabela's website and most of the offerings of the .357 Magnum loads are jacketed soft points with a few jacketed hollow points. They are mostly125 grain bullets with only a few 158 grain offerings. I can't guarantee that those will work nearly as well as the .30-30 JSP loads or the Horndy Leverevolution offering you can usually get. That said, I've never seen anyone execute this sort of experiment outside of a YouTube challenge so it may not be practical. It does, however, highlight a practical issue of some people may not be able to get the best or even suitable hunting loads from their local shop and are limited to what's on the shelf. Maybe they can't order from the Internet like I can.
If you are willing to put in the effort and research needed to verify the .357 Magnum loads or develop your own, then the sky is the limit but .30-30 wins handedly on factory ammunition points. Plan accordingly.
Recoil
The .357 Magnum from a rifle has very mild felt recoil. I won't say that the .30-30 recoils hard because it doesn't but if you really are trying to mitigate recoil, a .357 Magnum rifle will be the way to go. From a numbers perspective, Backfire reports felt recoil around 9.97 lbs while someone calculated .357 Magnum from a rifle is about 4 lbs. If you want a comparison, 5.56 and .300 Blackout also have around 4 lbs of felt recoil.
The .357 Magnum wins here.
Magazine Capacity
Not that this will matter much in a dedicated hunting rifle but between two 20 inch barrel rifles with same length magazines, one in .357 Magnum should hold about four more rounds compared to the .30-30. My Winchester 94 is supposed to hold six where my Marlin 1894 with a 16 inch barrel holds eight. I haven't felt the need to load either to capacity when I go out hunting. I usually only load three rounds and my guns typically have cartridge cuffs that hold extra rounds.
The well loved .357 Smith and Wesson Magnum wins on this point but I don't see that it matters for hunting. It sure would for home defense or woods defense though, which is why my Marlin 1894 CST gets fielded as a General Purpose or Farm Gun instead of a dedicated hunting rifle.
Summary
I had honestly expected the .30-30 to win hands down and make the .357 Magnum look like a chump. In digging around, those Remington .357 Magnum loads really do perform well. If setup correctly, on paper, it appears that these hollow point loads can handle most of what people are using .30-30 for on average. In fact, based on MPBR, we can argue those .357 Magnum Remington loads are capable of 77% of what .30-30 can do. We could also claim that .30-30 is probably 23% better. I'm pretty sure that math doesn't stack but I like it. Very click-baity.
What I found most interesting is that the only real and obvious categories where .30-30 wins is the MPBR and ammunition availability. Granted, I can't really provide accurate expansion vs velocity/distance information for .30-30 but I have a sneaking suspicion that if one spent enough time reloading the .30-30 using modern bullets and powders, a truly impressive load could be developed that would push your Marlin 336 or Henry H009 out to 300 yards for deer.
If you have a .357 Magnum rifle and are wondering if you need to run out and buy a new .30-30, you don't. Grab a box or two of good .357 Magnum such as the Hornady Custom 158 gr XTP JHP loads or Remington's HTP 158 gr SJHP and you'll be just fine. You can also learn to hand load. I hear lots of good things from people using the Hornady XTP bullets or good cast lead bullets. Learn your rifle and set it up for the MPBR that makes sense for you. The opposite is true, you don't need to run out and buy a new .357 Mag rifle to replace your old .30-30 to take whitetail.
So which do I choose? For now, I'm staying with my Marlin 1894 CST in .357 Magnum as my go-to rifle for taking deer on the Little Farm because of the silencer. I don't do much hunting off the property and don't have any leases with other private land owners that aren't my immediate neighbor. I had very badly wanted to justify purchasing and build out a new Marlin 336 rifle in .30-30. I wanted to build it basically the same way I have the 1894 CST but with blued steel, wood stock, a 20 inch threaded barrel, a silencer, and a scope. I will continue to use the Marlin 1894 in .357 Magnum for hunting under 130 yards for on the Little Farm for sure. That distance covers the vast majority of what happens on our homestead but for getting off of the homestead, I would take the .30-30 as a 200 yard rifle but I don't really have anywhere that would be needed. Generally, I prefer the spot-and-stalk method of hunting and I can usually close the distances to under 100 yards. That's where the .357 Magnum works well enough.
How else can I quantify this? Silencers. In Georgia, we can hunt with silencers on private land as long as we have verifiable permission to do so or you own the land. They are prohibited on WMA land for hunting. After thinking more on the subject, instead of having a rifle that focuses on having the silencer as part of the package and a zero to match, it might be better to have a dedicated hunting rifle for off-property places that includes WMA land that doesn't have the silencer as part of the package. That way, I don't have to worry about impact shift when removing the silencer to hunt WMA or elsewhere I can't use the silencer. In places I can use a silencer, take the 1894 CST. The new Marlin Classic rifles would be great candidates for that slot. A single roll rifle that functions solely as a hunting rifle.
That's a stark shift from my previous position that I had been waiting for Marlin to release the 336 Classic with a threaded barrel. It's not ideal since I would like to be able to use the .30-30 with a suppressor when I want to but if I purchased the regular Classic, I can still build it for limited use applications. If I consider this idea, Marlin also released the 1894 Classic in .357 Magnum. That rifle would fit excellently within my stack of .357 Magnum family. The CST handles suppressed, general purpose work while the Classic is dressed to handle dedicating hunting. At this point, I want to wait to see what Marlin does before I start spending money but honestly, it's a total stalemate for me. Any of the Marlin Classic series rifles will do what I want with the correct loading. Well, I guess the real question is this then, which new Marlin Classic do I buy first?
And no, I won't be choosing a bolt-action. As Marlin says, Long Live the Lever Action.
Update 30 JAN: I stumbled across a YouTube video where a person wanted to take a .30-30 with a 20 inch barrel on an Elk hunt. They set down several factory loads and shot them into tubs of water at 150m which is 164 yards. The Fusion 170 grain loads I like performed well in the test at that distance. Apparently the factory loads like Winchester 170 gr Power Point, Remington 170 gr Core Lokt, and Federal Fusion 170 gr all did well at the 164 yard mark. The Hornady FTX and the Sierra 170 grain Pro-hunter did great so if you prefer to handload, I would look at those options.
If we accept that several of these loads are able to have some decent expansion at 200 yards, a 175 yard zero for these 170 grain factory loads would give you a 200 yard rifle. I think .30-30 wins.
Update AUG 2024: In regards to the Bass Pro / Cabela's example in the Ammunition Availability section, after continuing to do research, as I never really stop, I did find that Bass Pro keeps in store the Hornady Custom 158 gr XTP factory loading (90562). If my additional research is correct, that load would be an excellent choice for hunting whitetail. Loosely, it invalidates my argument that you won't likely find suitable ammo for the 357 Magnum lever action. That said, Academy does not carry that specific loading nor could I find any load they sell that I can confirm is suitable by my metrics for validation.
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