The short answer is yes, 16 inch barrels in the old 30-30 are still useful. The more interesting question is, how can I justify my statement? Extrapolating available data can be useful and until I have my own battery of lever action rifles in the same caliber with the different barrel lengths and a chronograph I trust, it's the best I can give you. That last statement is my ultimate goal. To provide the purchaser the data needed to decide if a .30-30 or .357 Mag lever action rifle in barrel lengths such as 13 inch, 16 inch and 20 inch are right for you.
Here's something you need to know. I will be comparing compiled data from three separate sources who used different chronographs in different regions of North America, at different times. These results are not as comparable as they can be. Ideally, we would have the same chronograph testing all the lengths on the same day with the same batch of ammo. Until I have everything needed, this will have to do. It should give us a good idea of what we can expect.
Let's go over what data I have found. I want to note that the 16 inch barrel data for .30-30 has been tricky to find but thankfully the 20 inch data is easily available. In fact, I had started this article a while back but couldn't find reliable data on the 16 inch until recently. Sadly, much of this information is still single-source at this time. The only load we have in common in the three sets of data are the Hornady LeverEvolution 160 grain factory load. Thankfully, it's a commonly available load.
Our sources for this data are a number of YouTube videos. Take that as you will. The Mason Leather ammo test series along with Brobee223's Elk Hunt 30-30 video will provide comparative data for 20 inch barrels. They also provide 100 yard expansion in most cases. Be careful in observing that some of the earlier Mason videos have the expansion testing at 50 yards and not 100. The Brobee223 video provides us bullet expansion data at 100 and 150 meters (not yards) as well as the velocities those bullets would have impacted the target. The 150m (164 yards) data is important as it provides us with bullet expansion at reduced velocities in what I'll call Estimated Lowest Velocity (ELV). Simply, what is the Estimated Lowest Velocity (not distance but velocity) that a bullet can impact a target and still expand and penetrate nicely? We will combine all that data and compare it to the 16 barrel data from the Husker Hunting video. We will run the 16 inch barrel data through a calculator and compare the ELV from the Brobee223 video to see where the load from the 16 inch would reach the reduced velocity figures.
Our only common example is the Hornady LeverEvolution 160 grain load. This load chronographs at 2347 fps from a 20 inch barrel per Lee Mason's video but the 16 inch barrel from Husker Hunting achieves 2289 fps. A difference of 58 fps. The ELV from the Brobee223 video is 1953 fps at 150 meters or 164 yards. Running the velocity of 2289 fps through a ballistic calculator shows that our bullet would hit 1953 fps around 140 yards when fired from the 16 inch barrel. It needs to be noted that the Brobee223 muzzle velocity is at 5m (16 feet) is 2280 fps. This would be a serious discrepancy to reconcile between the two 20 inch sources as we're looking at though it's only 60 fps difference.
Once we run the 20 inch barrel data from Mr. Mason through, we see a minimum distance around 163 yards. Interestingly, this matches closely to the Brobee223 164 yard data.
The difference between the 20 inch barrel and 16 inch barrel works out to around 23 yards lost at 140 yards vs 163 yards if we use the 1953 fps as a hard cutoff. Again, we are ignoring the discrepancy in the 20 inch barrel data. Ultimately, for a user who never hunts outside of 100 yards, the difference just doesn't matter.
Here's a new question. What if we wanted to run this from a Short Barrel Rifle with say a 13 inch barrel? The difference between the 20 inch and 16 inch for the Hornady is around 58 fps. If we subtract another 58 fps to go from 16 inches to 12 inches, that puts us close to the 13 inch barrel found on say a Rossi Triple Black Pistol in .30-30. It's seems reasonable then to assume around 2231 fps our Rossi lever action pistol. The same calculator shows that the Hornady 160 grain FTX bullet with it's .330 BC crosses the 1953 fps line at 117 yards with an assumed muzzle velocity of 2231 fps. Once again, for a person who hunts at 100 yards and less would be served just fine with a registered SBR with a barrel of .30-30.
At this point, I don't have any additional Estimated Lowest Velocity for any other 16 inch barrel loads as the Husker Hunting data only overlapped with the Brobee223 data on the Hornady LeverEvolution load. No one else has tested expansion past 100 yards that I have been able to find. I have also tried to find testing data from persons using a Thompson Center Contender Super 14 in .30-30 but I haven't found anything just yet.
I personally think the LeverEvolution load does very well but I would very much like to confirm the 16 inch velocities for some of the traditional JSP loads like the Winchester Power Points 170 grain and Federal Power Shok. The Husker Hunting video did test other loads but the Brobee223 video did not though they are seen lined up in the beginning of the video. In other cases, the Brobee223 video has testing for some loads, like the Federal Fusion 170 grain (which I am a fan of), the Remington Core-Lokt 170 grain and the Winchester Power Point 170 grain but the Husker video tested the 150 grain versions. Lee Mason found that all three of those basic loads in both the 150 and 170 grain versions do very well from the 20 inch barrel. I can't imagine that the 16 inch barrel wouldn't be able to achieve the same capabilities at 100 yards and better. I would like to find or test ELV for all 6 of those factory loads.
Since we're here, let's compare the velocities from the other tested loads from Mr. Mason's collection to the Husker data set. We might not know the Estimated Lowest Velocity for the rest but we can at least see the difference in the barrel lengths.
Winchester Power Point 150 gr
20 inch - 2336
16 inch - 2285
Difference - 51 fps
Federal Fusion 150 gr
20 inch - 2392
16 inch - 2256
Difference - 136 fps
Winchester Power Point 150 gr
20 inch - 2227
16 inch - 2211
Difference - 16 fps
Hornady American Whitetail
20 inch - 2321
16 inch - 2297
Difference - 27 fps (Very interesting)
Federal Power Shok 170gr
20 inch - 2086
16 inch - 2083
Difference - 3 fps (That's wild. I would like to note that these were found to be excellent projectiles by Mr. Mason)
Remington Core-Lokt 150 gr
20 inch - 2264
16 inch - 2362
Difference - Something is wrong here as the 16 inch is 68 fps higher. It's possible its a formulation issue but I wonder if something happened here regarding the chronographs. Paul Harrell got 2322 fps from the same load in a 20 inch. It could be the Remington 150 grain just did perfectly in the Marlin 16 inch barrel. The stars aligning sort of thing such as the bullets perfectly matched the bore of the 16 inch rifle compared to the older rifles tested by Mr. Harrell and Mr. Mason. I don't know.
With the noteworthy exception of the Remington load, the posted velocities between the two data sets are pretty close though the Fusion load is disappointing. If the numbers are correct, that could be a formulation thing.
In summary, these rifle caliber 16 inch, even sub-16 inch options, appear to still be useful for hunting applications with a main focus on the woods hunter where a shorter rifle is a prized tool for maneuverability. I've already shown before that the pistol calibers such as .357 and .44 Magnum play very nicely in the Trapper barrels with the rifle hunting loads. I would definitely say these guns would work for defensive use in either backcountry and suburban environments as needed. It should be noted again that unless someone takes the time to properly test each factory loading, these numbers are essentially Fuzzy Math. I'm taking a lot of liberties and playing the "If" game. It's very likely that these loads can go further but I can't prove that just yet and the opposite could be true. My next quest will be to look further into the next caliber of .45-70 but I have a feeling that I just won't be as successful as I was with the .30-30. Maybe someday I can pick up a Marlin SBL and Trapper to compare next to a Rossi Triple Black Pistol and a stack of ammunition to prove the above.
Sources - The gentleman who's data being compiled really need all the thanks as they have put the time and effort needed to test and record the data. A huge Thank You to the gentlemen listed below as I simply stand on the shoulders of men greater than I.
16 inch barrel data from Husker Hunting
Lee Mason's 30-30 Ammo Test Series Playlist
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLD7jKcI6pjb8UZ_qeYkF7_mdk-YqB3Lyx
Minimum Velocity Test by Brobee223
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